As the 2026 World Cup draws to a close, the question on everyone's mind is: who will land the rights to the 2030 tournament? With nearly every major media company kicking the tires on broadcast rights, the bidding process is set to be a hotly contested affair. In my opinion, the key to understanding this lies in two pressing questions: how many teams will participate, and will FIFA mandate hydration breaks? These questions will drive the value of broadcast rights and, ultimately, determine who gets a piece of the action.
Personally, I think the 2030 World Cup will see an expansion to 64 teams, opening the door for a second broadcast partner. If this is the case, I believe Fox will be a likely landing spot for the linear package. As the incumbent English-language broadcaster, Fox has already signaled its interest in staying in the international soccer business, and its president has confirmed its hopes of retaining World Cup rights. What makes this particularly fascinating is the potential for Fox to offer a more compelling bid than its competitors, given its linear-heavy approach and its desire to retain costs.
However, if FIFA doesn't expand the tournament, the landscape becomes murkier. Splitting a 48-team tournament between two partners doesn't seem as likely, and prospective partners could balk at having only 52 games each. In this scenario, the streamers with deeper pockets, like Netflix, might be more attractive to FIFA, as they can offer a larger audience and a more certain future.
One thing that immediately stands out is the role of the streamers. Netflix, in particular, offers a compelling argument for World Cup rights, given its desire to boost engagement and its existing rights to the Women's World Cups. However, the question remains: will FIFA be willing to share inventory with a linear network? If not, the streamers might be the most likely bidders, with Netflix being the front-runner.
In conclusion, the 2030 World Cup bidding process is set to be a complex and intriguing affair. While Fox is well-positioned to retain a portion of the rights if FIFA expands the tournament, the streamers, particularly Netflix, offer a more certain future and a larger audience. The outcome will depend on FIFA's decision on the number of teams and hydration breaks, as well as the willingness of the bidders to share inventory. From my perspective, the streamers are the most likely to land the rights, but the traditional broadcasters, like Fox and NBCUniversal, will also be in the running. It's a fascinating time for soccer fans and media companies alike, and the next few months will be crucial in determining the future of the beautiful game.
